• Home
• Projects
• Staff
• Pictorial
• News & Updates
• Community Centres

The Reality Behind Kenya's Political Stalemate.

BY JOSEPH OLE SIMEL, Executive Director
February 2008

1.            Introduction

It is believed by most Kenyans, and more specifically by the opposition leaders and their supporters that the December 2007 General elections victory was stolen, in favour of the sitting President, a situation that has opened a Pandora box of ethnic violence, all over the country.  Although media reports indicate a constant figure of 1,000 of the fatalities resulting from the skirmishes, this figure could be well more than double, as most cases go unreported and of course the government wants to save face by portraying the levels of the violence at a minimum. 

Although the violence does directly affect the indigenous communities, though not in the same magnitude that has been seen in some other parts of the country, cases of aggression by the community against the Kikuyu, who are in the ruling tribe, have been reported in Narok, Mai Mahiu and to a small extend in Kajiado, where members of the Kikuyu and Kamba community were asked to leave Maasailand.  In the melee, a number of people were shot dead by police in Narok Town. 

It is in Eldoret, Kisumu, Mombasa, Naivasha, Nakuru, Kericho and Nairobi that the brunt of the violence has been felt, with police using live bullets to disperse/kill demonstrator and the local communities rising up in arms against their childhood friends, burning and slashing them to death in ethnic animosity. 

Already the effects of one and half month’s uncertainty are biting hard.  Close to over 1,000 innocent people have lost their lives in the most cruel manner, either in the hands of their own neighbours or by the police who were operating on a shoot to kill order. 

Over 500,000 people have been uprooted from their land as a result of the bloody conflict that is putting  neighbours and communities against each other.  The people evicted from their homes are now refugees in their own country.  These are people or families who have been self reliant and have previously been able to sufficiently meet their daily needs. Now, the families have been reduced to beggars, left at their mercy of well wishers i.e. the Kenya Red Cross, the church, civil society, individuals etc. 

The impact of this mayhem is that the social fabric of the country has been badly destroyed since mistrust and suspicious have taken root and the probability of minor disagreements between different communities erupting into chaos is very high.  In some parts of the country, insecurity and lawlessness have taken centre stage, stopping the normal life after houses and business were burnt down or destroyed. 

2.             Key Outcomes of the Conflict

• Destruction of lives and property as innocent people, including women and children were slaughtered.
• Livelihoods built over the years were completely destroyed.
• The culture of impunity is now the order of the day.  Human rights abuses are going on as a result of the conflict, as more women are raped in refugee camps. 
• Disease outbreak e.g. cholera has been reported in the Nakuru camp despite the governments denial of this. 
• Mistrust and suspicion among different ethnic groups in the country.
• Economic implications.  It has now become very clear that the political stand off could continue to wipe out major economic gains made over the years.   In just a few days after violence erupted in the country the economy is nearly grinding to a halt. We cannot divorce political stability from economic growth, poverty eradication, sustainable development, human rights and good governance. The political crisis facing the country has seen things grind to a stand still in most parts of the country. Trucks have been prevented from traveling to and from Mombassa, East Africa’s main sea port.  This has cause massive fuel supply crisis that has seen the cost of fuel double in parts of the country, and triple in neighboring Uganda. 

Many businesses, especially those who premises were razed, have been damaged irredeemably.  This has caused loss of jobs and people’s entire livelihoods completely destroyed. The economy in the country is on its way to its knees. Tourism which has been the backbone of the economy as a leading foreign exchange earner is teetering on the brink of collapse, as some hotels report no booking as while others have closed their doors, sending more people home.  To some this means joining their families at refugee camps across try country.

Agriculture and horticulture have been greatly affected, with the core agricultural province, Rift Valley facing the brunt of the conflict. Most farmers have been sent out of their homes and as the maize planting season approaches (April), it is likely that  the number of farms that will grow maize will be quite low.  The horticultural town of Naivasha has been adversely affected with most of the skilled farm workers being displaced, affecting the productivity of this foreign exchange earning sector. 

The country political crisis has equally affected the United Nations Humanitarian agencies base, hence affecting its relief and peace keeping operations across the Eastern Africa Region.

1. Causes of the Conflict

When seeking to address the conflict situation in Kenya, it is important to note that the root cause of the violence, is not the outcome of the December 2007 Presidential elections, but rather, underlying animosity among communities and different socio-economic classes of people in the country. 

The people feel powerless, when they do not have faith in the governing institutions.  This often leads to violence as a form of protest. 

• Inequitable distribution of resources in the various parts of the country.     It has become perennial for the government of the day to allocate the top most cabinet seats, civil service, local government and government parastatal jobs to the community of the ruling president.  Currently, The President, Minister for Local government, minister for internal security, minister for justice and constitutional affairs, the Chief Justice and the Governor for the Central Bank ail from the same community.  

During the most recent government’s annual budget, Nyeri District, the home town of the President was allocated a hefty Ksh. 780 million for road construction, against a meager allocation of 3 million for Kajiado District (Nyeri district measures 3,356sq km while Kajiado measures 21,903 sq km). 

• Political domination - communities are seeking to overcome political domination by major tribes in the country, who have acquired land in their territories, whether as a result of ‘wiling-seller-willing-buyer, government allocation or other fraudulent means.   Other than settling in these territories, these communities have dominated the economic and political structures and bursary opportunities, leaving the people poor and voiceless.  

• Historical injustices as an underlying cause of the unrest

The violence in Rift Valley seems to have been sparked by a combination of factors, among them the disputed presidential election, land ownership, equitable distribution of resources and political domination. 

Topping the list of these injustices is the emotive issue of land ownership in the region.  Ten years ago, the justice Akilano Akiwumi led judicial commission of inquiry into tribal clashes during the 1992 and 1997 general elections said that land dispute or claims fuelled the violence in Rift Valley.  The Njonjo and Ndung’u Land commission recommended for land reforms and particularly and particularly address the issue of historical injustices.    None of the recommendations were implemented because of lack of political good will.

The land issue in Kenya spans two major phases of Kenya’s historic .  Colonial and post colonial eras of President Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki.

• Outcomes of the Presidential Election Results

Judging by the form the violence has assumed, the poll outcome fuelled simmering animosity among communities, resident in the region.  The information available from the local people reveal that increased population in the region had put pressure on available land, forcing some of the indigenous peoples of the area to seek ways of recovering land they claim was irregularly allocated to non-indigenous communities. 

‘We were unhappy about the elections outcome’, says a local leader of Uasin Ngishu District during a recent media interview, ‘but more importantly, the presidential election results presented us, as a community i.e. the Kalenjin with a good opportunity to right some of the historical wrongs committed against the community by, both by the colonial administration and the independent Kenya regimes’.

On their arrival in the country, the British sent Africans into reserves and took huge tracks of land, which they later became white Highlands.  Consequently, what used to be the open grazing and farming lands for the Maasai, pokot, and Kalenjin in the Rift Valley were transformed into coffee, tea, wheat, and maize plantations plus cattle ranching.  The land that was grabbed by the colonialists was not returned to the rightful owners after the colonial period, but rather, dubiously acquired by African political elite.  So the bloodletting following the contested and so far discredited presidential elections is a symptom of failure by the independence regime to face up to history and address the reality, that is the land question, fair distribution of resources and non domination by one group to another.   

Historical injustices perceived and real, especially the question of land and resource allocation and other social inequity, human rights abuses, political domination by certain communities against others provided the fuel for the fires that threatens to consume the Kenyan society.  From Australia to Chile, Canada to South Africa, Liberia to Argentina, Rwanda to USA, and many more others, people are refusing to allow history to be silenced. 

Succeeding generations refuse impunity and demand, social justice, equity and moral accountability and transparency.  For the past and current injustice being committed by one or more groups against the others.  Kenya is not different from other countries; it has no choice but to seek the truth in order to address the conflict in an amicable manner, favorable for all citizens.  The more this is avoided, the more complicated the situation is becoming. 

4.  Peace and Reconciliation

Missed avenues towards Resolving the stalemate

Two years after the country wasted a golden opportunity to enact a good constitution, the sins have now come to haunt us. A largely government supported draft constitution named the (Wako) draft was handed a resounding defeat at the November 2005 National Referendum. Earlier, the Bomas draft, negotiated for a very long time had been trashed faster than it had been prepared.   In more ways than one, either of the two constitution drafts would have walked us as county out of the political quagmire that we have fallen into since the December 27 general election.

Either of the constitution would have easily pulled us out of this impasse without reference to dialogue, diplomatic or even international mediation. The two drafts provided that only a candidate who received more than 50% of all the votes cast would be declared elected as president. All the presidential candidates fell short of this requirement.

A run off between Kibaki and Raila would have been held within 21 days after announcing the results. This was a big miss opportunity and now leaving the entire country at the mercy of two extremist politicians in the name of Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga. Two main proposals have been floated as the way out of this conflict and both have been conveniently rejected by either the Party of National Unity (PNU) or the Orange Democratic Movement.  

The operative option is to hold fresh presidential elections to correct any real or perceived anomalies committed before or after 27th December polls. This proposal, although the most popular in the country especially among the majority of the 14 millions registered voters, has not gone well with presidential Kibaki and a group of power brokers surrounding him.

The other option would be for Raila Odinga and ODM to file an election petition and seek legal redress. The ODM has ruled this out, saying no justice would be achieved in a judiciary that is heavily controlled by the Executive. The two broad issues, as they stand now, would have been easily worked out within the Bomas or Wako drafts.

The question of the independence of the judiciary has held back the ODM from the contesting the 2007 polls results in court. The fears are understandable especially for many people who have interacted with the judiciary, given the fact that some of the election petitions filed immediately after 2002 elections are still pending in court even after the 2007 election are over. This gives ODM justification for not considering the court as an option.   They are now left with the option of International mediation led by the former UN Secretary General, Koffi Anan.

The turmoil the country has gone through for the past one and half month has never been experienced before.  Many people have lost their lives and some have lost property.  A good number, have been displaced. 

All this has led to hatred, mistrust, suspicion and aggravated tribalism.  The whole country is sharply divided.  The key political players have continued to play a blame game, accusing each other of fueling the clashes.  None, in the main political parties in the conflict, i.e. PNU or  ODM has shown much seriousness and commitment for peace and reconciliation, yet this is the cornerstone for the restoration of peace and harmony. 

The reconciliation efforts have not yet succeeded mostly due to the selfishness of our political leaders from both of the two main political parties.  So far, the peace efforts have been approached by these leaders with ulterior motives behind the reconciliation and it is taking the form of political settlement but not, social justice, social equity or human rights, since the above factors are the main one that can bring healing and restore harmony among different communities.

The challenge that comes with political settlement, which does not address issue of human rights, equity and social justice, is that aggrieved parties may agree to co-exist, but bitterness and resentment often continues.  The political leadership, the church and the civil society must develop a positive attitude to resolve the current problem facing the country.  Since all of us have been affected directly or indirectly. 

The international community must assist in supporting the people of Kenya to be honest to themselves, and realize that for reconciliation, restoration of peace and harmony to take place we must have the ability to face the truth, be honest and admit that there is a very serious and big problem in our country.  Many Kenyans, especially the political class in the ruling party, PNU (government party) are still denying that and misleading the rest of the world to think that there is no grievous problem.  One most senior government officials has been quoted in the media saying ‘there are pockets of problems in some parts of the country’, yet the reality and what is known by the majority of the population is that the problem we are facing are weighty. 

Businesses have been destroyed, people killed, others burned to death, some school are still closed, some university lecturers were evicted from their university, while many students cannot go back to these institutions of higher learning because of tribal or ethnic conflicts. People still stay in cold refugee camps, police stations and church compounds because they do not have homes.  A morally right person cannot say these are ‘pockets or isolated problems’.  Again, some politicians in the government have also been reported in the local media saying that ‘Kenyans will fight for a few days then everything will come back to normal’ after two weeks.    This is irresponsible behavior of the Kenyan government officials and the international community  should not keep quiet as Kenyans continue to die. 

International NGOs, governments and churches must assist in the reconciliation efforts by imploring all parties involved in the conflict to honestly address the most controversial and contentious issues.  The cause of the unrest must be addressed plainly, no matter how painful it may be. Since the presidential elections were rigged by the institution responsible, in favour of one person, we the country must be prepared to talk about it so that preventive measures are put in place, so it does not happen again at any give time.

Some key politicians, their friends and supporters (that may include some churches, civil society and even certain media houses) want the country and its citizens to pretend there were no problems with the election results or avoiding talking about it, in the hope that it will disappear on its own.  This is definitely not going to solve the problem.  The international community needs to be courageous, to come out in the open and support the Kenyan people and join them in this struggle and talk about the cause of the unrest without fear or favour.  This will be the truth that we need for all people are set free from the yoke of pain, suffering, intimidation, threats and fear brought about by this unrest.  The International community should assist so that the talks between Kibaki and Raila Odinga and PNU and ODM should not be reduced to power play where consolidation of sharing of power is top on the agenda.  They must be about returning peace, reconciliation, harmony in the land, though human rights, social equity, justice and truth. 

They talks should be about the rule of law and ending suffering brought about, not only by tribal conflicts, but equally by a situation where lawlessness has become a way of life. 

5.            Key issue to be considered for indigenous peoples.

• Most of the people in dominant societies in Kenya are affluent, most of the indigenous peoples are impoverished, marginalised, under-nourished, and illiterate and most of them are internally displaced well before the current conflict.

While the economies of the dominant communities in the country are strong and resilient and therefore offering hope and security to the population of these communities, those of indigenous peoples are mainly weak and vulnerable, and therefore offer nothing, sometimes but despair and defencelessness.

• While most communities in Kenya are in control of their own resources and political, social and economic destinies, those of indigenous peoples are vulnerable to both internal and external factors and lack of functional independence and sovereignty.  This is the context in which we should understand the attachment to land in many communities in Kenya.   It is only ownership of land however tiny that gives a sense of security and independence to indigenous peoples. 
• The attention of the media is now directed towards the violence and the internally displaced persons, hence the prevailing drought situation in most arid and semi arid is not receiving sufficient coverage both by the media and by the government’s humanitarian departments.  The displacement of many farmers in the breadbasket north rift region has led to abandonment of farms and they now lie fallow.  The first short term impact of this is an increase in food prices.  The unrest, coupled with the perennial problem of unpredictable weather conditions, a major food shortage looms.
• Kenyans are not polarised because they belong to different sub-nationalities.  They are because they relate differently to the country’s resources and productive forces. 

At the centre of national question is land.  It is instructive to observe that the  core of the clashes is the agriculturally  rich rift valley.  The province is the most settled region.  Here, communities like the Maasai, the pokot, and the Nandi have unresolved grievances over land ownership centre on historical injustices. 

It was in the Rift Valley where the Maasai were duped into signing a 100-year agreement with the British in 1904 and 1911 and denied a hearing by both the British colonial and independent governments.  It is in the Rift Valley that the Pokot, the Ogiek and the Sengwer were being pushed out of their land.

• There is a brewing sense of fear among the pastoralist and hunter-gatherer communities, in Kajiado, Nakuru and Narok districts, where it is rumored that that the internally displaced persons will be settled, with the assumption that pastoralist grazing land, and forest for the gatherers, is idle land.  This is in lime with the dominant government ideology that pastoralism and hunter gatherer system of livelihood is not viable. 

6.            Way forward

In order for the country to come back to normalcy, there are several factors that need to be implemented both for short term and long term, one year and a maximum of two years. 

In the short term

• Peace and conflict resolution; that must involve the full participation of local communities, elders, women and youth.  Support of international mediation by Koffi Annan.
• A human rights approach resettlement programme to be put in place.  Security and humanitarian needs must be well addressed.  The complaints from the internally displaced persons, of tribal discrimination must be looked into with a lot of seriousness. 
• The shoot to kill order must be lifted and never again in the history of our country to be issued again.
• The freedom of assembly and expression.  Opinion is a fundamental right and must be guaranteed.  The government must therefore stop intimidations and threats to its citizens and the media, but rather allow them to do their work without interference.
• Political settlement that will result in the formulation of a coalition government based on transparency, as preparations are made for free and fair presidential elections in 1 ½ years. 
• The reform of the electoral commission of Kenya.  Creation of credible and competent electoral commission of Kenya.  The membership to be drawn from the major political parties according to the strength they have in parliament.  It must be free from corruption and manipulation.
• The structure and functioning of the judiciary.  There is more evidence that support the arguments that the judiciary has been corrupted by individuals within and outside the government for personal and selfish interests.  The judiciary has been manipulated to arrive at major decisions that lack legal basis. It has lost the peoples trust and confidence, and this must be addressed as a matter or urgency, so that all cases brought before the courts must be disposed with a lot of impartiality and within a limited and reasonable time.
• The Civil service and its key institutions like the security agents, revenue collection and distribution of resources must reflect the face of the more than 42 tribes and not one single community or region. 

Proposed Long term solutions

Legal and political reforms

Constititution review: This is golden opportunity that our country must address itself on proper constitution.  The constitution should be able to address key areas like: -

• Devolution of political power and distribution of resources
• Creation of a credible and independent institution of governance that will guarantee political leadership to be accountable.
• Address the land question.  This will look into the historical justices, contemporary injustices and the future use of land in Kenya.
• human rights, discrimination and exclusion of others
• Political domination by one group against the others, especially minorities and indigenous peoples.

• Conclusion

This uncontrolled political power that entrenches on individual freedom has since the colonial days’ betrayed successive generations of Kenya, and inflicted historical injustices that are the heart of the current crisis.    The best viable solution is to institute of pro-people system of governance that will hold the political leadership accountable to the public.  

A lot of energy and resources are needed during this critical period.  The international community is requested to assist in every way possible by supporting indigenous peoples to be able to engage and participate fully so that their key areas of concern are not left out twisted, manipulated or totally ignored by the dominant groups. 

Indigenous peoples may not have adequate negotiations skills, a key factor during the period of legal and policy reforms.  This expertise may be sourced by indigenous people’s leadership and civil society from within country and outside.   Some of the issues that may be ignored at the moment are natural calamities like drought, and even resettlement of some of the indigenous communities as a result of the political conflict, e.g. the Ogiek.   The issue of historical marginalization of indigenous peoples is likely to be forgotten.